Admiral Blair’s Gospel
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Adm. Blair, who took over the Honolulu-based U.S. Pacific Command in . . . [February 1999], has sold his vision forcefully in the past year, in interviews, speeches and articles, and in talks with regional governments and military establishments. He has received public backing from outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen and, he says, from many others in the Pentagon and State Department. Arguing that no treaties are necessary to encourage "habits of cooperation," Adm. Blair has set out to put his ideas into practice.

His initiatives include broadening previously bilateral military exercises, improving communications among the armed forces of the region and focusing foreign assistance on capabilities to contribute to joint humanitarian and peacekeeping operations, in addition to national defense. Singapore, for example, participated last year in the annual Thai-U.S. war games known as Cobra Gold. And in October, the U.S., Japan, Singapore and South Korea staged a submarine rescue exercise, observed by seven other navies, among them former enemies of the West, China and Russia.

Amitav Acharya, a Canadian security and Southeast Asia specialist, credits Adm. Blair with "moving the boundaries of debate and discourse" by promoting the security communities concept. For instance, by choosing a multilateral setting, the U.S. is able to introduce a Japan that still isn’t fully trusted by its neighbors. "I think the admiral has something there that is much more profound than most people realize," says Mr. Acharya.

But skeptics abound, among them, ironically, Western academics from the "realist" school of international relations, who tend to think that this military man is hopelessly idealistic. A seminar at the U.S. Defense Department-sponsored Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Adm. Blair’s backyard in Hawaii last year declared that a security community is "inappropriate" at this stage. The European theory "appears to have been reversed engineered to fit the peculiarities" of the Asia-Pacific region, participants said.

Even some partners wonder if Washington has ulterior motives. One Southeast Asian official, whose government supports the American forward deployment of 100,000 military personnel, muses that Adm. Blair’s comments may simply reflect the confidence of the U.S. as top dog, or its belief that U.S. troop numbers can be reduced by working with others. It’s also possible, the official adds, that the U.S. is preparing for the day when it might want to put together an anti-China network.

Understandably, the Chinese have the most serious reservations, since they consider the U.S. alliances with Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Australia a collective Cold War "relic." Beijing has agreed to send officers to programs in Honolulu and is receptive to some humanitarian overtures, but hasn’t joined U.S.-led training drills. "Strengthening military alliances and engaging in joint military exercises aren’t conducive to promoting peace and stability," a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said in September.

Adm. Blair cheerfully acknowledges that he had never heard of Karl Deutch when he first advocated security communities. But now that he has read the literature he is even more convinced that there is little alternative to developing "shared expectations of peaceful change." He identifies the enemy: "It is zero-sum, balance-of-power mindsets and ambiguous intentions, fueled by ethnic and religious zeal and historical fears and grievances." His advice: Stop measuring differences and start measuring progress.

Making a start to meeting the transnational challenges of terrorism, drug trafficking, piracy and weapons proliferation, as well as cooperating to assist those in distress at sea and victims of natural disasters, can be only positive. But the real test for the viability of security communities is China’s involvement, especially in military matters. Until Beijing extends its imprimatur, they will continue to be somewhat suspect, seen as perhaps a cover for a self-serving American maneuver.