The last Pacific Symposium of the 20th century conducted by the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies was held in Honolulu, Hawaii, in March 1999. The symposium brought together over 200 officials and scholars from the across the region to discuss issues of importance in the Asia-Pacific region. The theme of the symposium was "U.S. Engagement Policy in a Changing Asia: A Time for Reassessment?" The symposium was sponsored by the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies together with the National Defense University and the U.S. Pacific Command.

Whether during formal presentations, question and answer sessions, or over a cup of coffee during a break, panelists and audience members representing government, industries, universities and research institutes from 29 nations came together to not only gain a better understanding of current and projected conditions in the Asia-Pacific region. In doing so, they contributed to a thorough examination of the complex issues affecting the countries of the region.

To open this year's symposium, Dr. Robert A. Scalapino, Professor Emeritus at the Institute of East Asian Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, in his keynote address, set the stage by confronting current erroneous perceptions of an Asia-Pacific region in the midst of crisis. "One should avoid undue alarm," Dr. Scalapino said. "The risk of a major conflict between or among the large nations is at an all-time low, given the costs of such an act and the priorities on domestic challenges now in place. Current instability and violence are largely within, not between, states, products of deeply-rooted historic factors and failing systems," Dr. Scalapino explained.

After he and others completed their introductory remarks, the symposium's focus switched to six panel discussion groups. Five panels were devoted to discussing probable future situations in Japan, China, Korea, India and Southeast Asia focusing on the Asian financial crisis. The sixth panel examined relationships from a regional point of view and suggested future policy considerations for the United States. The first panel discussed Japan.

Mr. Kim Myong Choi (Korea) and Prof. K. S. Nathan (Malaysia) examine publications of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

JAPAN
Two primary issues concerning Japan were the focus of discussion during the symposium: Japan's economic crisis and Japan's role as a military presence in the Asia-Pacific theater.

Xia Liping, General Secretary and Senior Fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Strategic Studies, pointed out that although Japan has witnessed a decrease in consumerism, slowed investment and unemployment numbers reaching 4.3 percent, the highest since the 1950s, he believes the crisis to be strictly a temporary situation. "[The] Japanese economy will extricate itself from the [current] predicament within one to two years," Mr. Xia predicted, "and Japan will return to the social and economic levels that it was at prior to the financial crisis within four to five years."

Though Mr. Xia noted Japan had several unfavorable factors currently impeding its economic revival, such as "serious overproduction" in the midst of "stagnant needs" and the perception of too wide a fluctuation in Yen by world standards, he acknowledged Japan as a country worthy of respect.

"Since the end of the Second World War, Japan not only has recovered from the ruins of war, but also has made a lot of economic miracles so as to become the second biggest economy in the world," Mr. Xia said.

With regard to Japanese military responsibility in the region, Kim Sung-Han, Associate Professor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs & Trade in Seoul, said "the greatest diplomatic challenge facing Japan has to do with security policy." However, Prof. Kim went on to say "China-Japan-U.S. trilateral cooperation would benefit not only the three partners," Prof. Kim said, "but also the entire Asia-Pacific region.

"Against this backdrop, the United States needs to play a balanced role between Japan and China," Prof. Kim said. "the United States needs to avoid utilizing and heightening tension between Japan and China, which could endanger stability in the trilateral relationship."

Commodore S. P. Weerasekera (Sri Lanka) and Mr. Tom Peterman (U.S.) speak with an unidentified attendee.

CHINA
Concentrating on the recent past and current conditions in China Dr. Richard Rigby, Assistant Secretary, Northeast Asia Division, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, who presented an Australian viewpoint concerning Chinese economic reforms, said "one of the few constants in China [is] its perpetual capacity to surprise us and confound our predictions."

"The official Chinese position is that domestic debt levels are relatively comfortable," said Dr. Rigby. "This picture would suggest that China can continue its gradualistic approach to reform." However, Dr. Rigby pointed out that government debt-to-gross domestic product ratios were hovering at four to five percent instead of the official number of 2.2 percent. Short-term foreign debt, Dr. Rigby said, is almost twice the official figure of U.S. $18 billion.

With the Chinese economic situation in mind, Dr. Rigby remained the cautious optimist. "While I should be the last person to underrate the dangers and challenges that lie ahead, and conscious as I am of all the mistakes and worse committed in the name of the Communist Party of China, I do have to confess to having become, over some 30 years of looking at China, just a little skeptical of China skepticism," he said.

Prof. Yin Xiangshuo, Vice Chairman of the Department of World Economy, Fudan University, Shanghai, said the solution to Chinese economic woes wouldn't be found in the banks or stock markets. "A more important long-term problem is the quality of (the) population and the expenditure on education," Prof. Yin said. "China now has too (much) unskilled labor who can only produce labor-intensive products. The central government is fully aware of this and (is starting) to emphasize the importance of education and technology."

Dr. Bernard Cole, Col. Larry M. Wortzel, and Prof. Stanley Henning (all of the U.S.) continue symposium discussions during a break.

KOREA
Discussions surrounding the Koreas ranged from government reform to the threat of military action and the prospect of unification. "To create a national community the North must change," said Ambassador Sung Jung Kyung, Consul General of the Republic of Korea in Honolulu. "For this reason, South Korea will continue to promote economic cooperation with the north under the principle of separating politics from economic cooperation.

"South Korea should be prepared to provide aid to North Korea with elasticity from a humanitarian viewpoint," Amb. Sung added. "Assisting the North Korean effort to solve their economic problems fundamentally by agricultural cooperation and activation of south-north economic cooperation should be considered." Concluding his speech, Mr. Jung echoed the deeply-rooted sentiments of Korean nationalism: "In the long run, it will be the determination of the Koreans that decide the future of Korea."

Col. Gaurav Shumsher Jung Bahadur Rana (Nepal) and Lt. Col. Samuala Veilege Raduva (Fiji) speak with an unidentified participant on the left.

SOUTHEAST ASIA
Mr. Aristides Katoppo, the publisher of the Jarkatan PT Pustaka Sinar Harapan, warned that the current economic and political maelstrom gripping Indonesia could lead to the "balkanization" of this strategically important country. "Visualize a Yugoslavia variation in the archipelago astride the routes of Southeast Asia and sea lanes between the Pacific and Indian Oceans," Mr. Katoppo said.

Indonesia has been wracked by economic difficulties stemming from "a currency problem in Bangkok," he said, which trickled down to Indonesia after hitting other countries in the region. The result was "sudden massive hardships on hundreds of millions of people whose livelihoods became unstuck within less time than it needs to grow rice."

The results of the economic crisis included the student-led ouster of then President Suharto, who was replaced by Vice President Habibie, and the widespread unrest which has plagued Indonesia for months. Noting the possibility of another Yugoslavia, however, Mr. Katoppo pointed out that "with some luck and strong support from the U.S. and international community, it can be averted."

Commodore Geoff A. Morton (Australia) talks with Brig. Arun Roye (India).

INDIA
The regional power in South Asia and the world's largest democracy, India has attempted to gain international prestige through its May 1998 nuclear tests and subsequent missile testing. India's efforts for international prominence have placed it at odds with both the United States and the international community. Official United States economic sanctions, in which loans and financial aid to India were frozen, were considered a mistake by Brigadier Vijai K. Nair, executive director for the Forum for Strategic & Security Studies in New Delhi.

"If anything leaks more than the press in Washington, it is economic sanctions," Brig. Nair said. "History is replete with case studies demonstrating that sanctions have, more often than not, failed and are not suitable tools to achieve foreign policy goals. Especially so where the target country perceives its national security interests being challenged."

Brig. Nair illustrated his argument by pointing out that sanctions have failed to achieve their objective. He said that, although India has had technology and economic sanctions placed on it, "the effect of these economic sanctions could amount to one-half percent reduction in the national GDP growth."

Sanctions notwithstanding, Joseph E. Goldberg, a professor of political science and director of research with the Industrial College of the Armed Forces of the National Defense University, said India still considers the nuclear tests to have been valid and necessary. "India maintains that the Non-proliferation Treaty of 1974 discriminates unfairly against those states which did not possess nuclear weapons prior to the treaty taking effect," Prof. Goldberg said.
Prof. Goldberg also addressed the issue of continued talks between India and Pakistan as a means to beginning increased stability in the area. "Now that India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, the question concerns the responsibilities that fall upon such states," he continued. "India and Pakistan have shown wisdom in reopening discussions with each other to discuss safeguards against accidental warfare, resolution of past issuesand opportunities for future cooperation." "As both countries are aware," Prof. Goldberg said, "this is only the beginning."

The 1999 Pacific Symposium successfully brought together a wide variety of participants to exchange views on policies and relationships in a changing Asia. Russian Amb. Evgeny V. Afanesiev and Mr. Sun Cheng (U.S.) exchange views.

LOOK TO THE FUTURE
Cynthia Watson, an Associate Dean of the National War College at the National Defense University, believes Latin America to be indicative of possible future conditions in Asia. She warns that Asia is fertile soil for such Latin-American maladies as narcotics trafficking and production, increased levels of street crime, political violence and corruption and degradation of environmental conditions. "These transcontinental issues are now spreading from Columbia through the northern tier of South America and could spread across Southeast Asia," Ms. Watson said.

"Additionally, many of the conditions of inequality are present in China during a period of unprecedented growth," she said. "The Chinese have not experienced a dramatic downturn in economic conditions for almost a generation, as [has been] true in Southeast Asia, and expectations for the government's ability to prevent downturnsmay be severely challenged and could open the door to these problems in the region."

Although the future economic atmosphere in the region was the primary concern of Evgeny V. Afanasiev, Russian Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, he also pointed out that "confidence building measures, including limited and non-provoking military activities, and transparency of military doctrines and strategies are the most important elements of new regional relations.

"In this rare moment of history, major powers in Northeast Asia are free from open regional rivalry and military confrontation despite certain conflicts of interest," Amb. Afanasiev observed. "Unless something goes terribly wrong, interdependent economic relations will provide a new pillar for security, stability and regional cooperation."

The end of the conference saw most of the participants of the 1999 Pacific Symposium leave with a firmer grasp of the vital issues of the Asia-Pacific region and, hopefully, some potential solutions for problems to take home with them.

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